Nominees for the world’s best player award will be announced on 4 September – with the 2023-24 seasons and this summer’s major tournaments the factors considered.
With Real Madrid’s Vinicius Jr and Jude Bellingham failing to win their continental tournaments with Brazil and England respectively, it has arguably opened the door for somebody else.
BBC Sport looks at the six players with the shortest bookmakers’ odds to win the award on 28 October in Paris.
Vinicius Jr (Real Madrid, Brazil)
Games played: 49. Goals scored: 26. Assists: 11. Trophies: La Liga, Champions League, Spanish Super Cup.
He ended the season as Real Madrid’s top scorer with 24 goals and added 11 assists.
Real Madrid winger Vinicius, 24, has been tipped for the Ballon d’Or for some time after helping his side win La Liga and yet another Champions League.
A Copa America victory with Brazil would probably have made it a sure deal – but they went out in the quarter-finals on penalties to Uruguay, a game Vinicius missed because of suspension after receiving two yellow cards in the group stage.
The last Brazilian to win the Ballon d’Or was Kaka in 2007, with only Neymar finishing in the top three since then.
Rodri (Manchester City, Spain)
Games played: 63. Goals scored: 12. Assists: 14. Trophies: Premier League, Uefa Super Cup, Club World Cup, Euro 2024.
Holding midfielder Rodri, 28, lost one game all season for club and country (excluding penalty shootouts) – the FA Cup final against Manchester United.
His record, therefore, stands at four trophies for every defeat – winning the Premier League, Uefa Super Club and Club World Cup with Manchester City, and then Euro 2024 with Spain.
He went off injured at half-time in the Euros final against England but had already done enough to be named player of the tournament.
No Manchester City player has ever won the Ballon d’Or during their time at the club.
Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid, England)
Games played: 54. Goals scored: 27. Assists: 16. Trophies: La Liga, Champions League, Spanish Super Cup.
England midfielder Bellingham, 21, enjoyed a stellar first season at Real Madrid following last summer’s move from Borussia Dortmund.
He ended the campaign with 23 goals – including late winners in both La Liga matches with Barcelona – and 13 assists for his club as they won the Spanish league and Champions League.
His most notable moment at Euro 2024 was the injury-time overhead kick which sent England’s last-16 tie with Slovakia to extra time.
Had he inspired England to victory over Spain in the final, he may well have become favourite to be England’s first Ballon d’Or winner since Michael Owen in 2001.
Dani Carvajal (Real Madrid, Spain)
Games played: 54. Goals scored: 7. Assists: 8. Trophies: La Liga, Champions League, Spanish Super Cup, Euro 2024.
Right-back Carvajal, 32, seems an unlikely figure to pop up among the Ballon d’Or favourites, but he has become one of only 12 people to play in and win both the Champions League and European Championship final in the same season.
He netted Real Madrid’s opening goal in the Champions League final win over Borussia Dortmund – and also scored for Spain in a Euro 2024 group victory over Croatia.
Carvajal would become the first full-back to win the Ballon d’Or.
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona, Spain)
Games played: 64. Goals scored: 10. Assists: 14. Trophies: Euro 2024.
Barcelona winger Yamal was already having a sensational season for a 16-year-old as he made 50 club appearances, including seven goals and seven assists.
It made him by far the youngest player to reach a half-century of games for Barcelona.
But at Euro 2024 he turned that up a notch to make it a sensational season for any player of any age.
His four assists in Germany matched the record for any player in a single European Championship – and he scored a stunning strike in the semi-final win over France which will go down in history.
The youngest player, goalscorer and winner at a European Championship – who turned 17 the day before the final – was named young player of the tournament.
Brazil legend Ronaldo, aged 21 in 1997, is the youngest player to win the Ballon d’Or.
Lionel Messi (Inter Miami, Argentina)
Games played: 39. Goals scored: 28. Assists: 17. Trophies: Copa America.
Messi, 37, is the most successful player in Ballon d’Or history, winning eight times – including last year, courtesy of leading Argentina to World Cup glory.
He is still ranked among the favourites with the bookmakers, but it would be a surprise if he won.
He only scored one goal in Argentina’s Copa America triumph this summer, against Canada in the semi-finals, went off injured in the final and was generally below his best.
Messi did not win any trophies with Inter Miami in the timeframe.
